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BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

8-8  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 8:20 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

9-7  |  Home

26
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
100%
📊
STEELERS
0%
RAVENS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Pittsburgh)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

23.8%

Steelers Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

BAL By 1-6 points

10.7%

BAL By 7-13 points

7.3%

PIT By 1-6 points

15.3%

PIT By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
10
BALTIMORE
20
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
20
BALTIMORE
24
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Steelers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u42.0 Loss
Proj Total: 30.0
D
Sim u42.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 BAL @ PIT 24 - 26
Dec 7, 2025 PIT @ BAL 27 - 22
Jan 11, 2025 PIT @ BAL 14 - 28
Dec 21, 2024 PIT @ BAL 17 - 34
Nov 17, 2024 BAL @ PIT 16 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.6% more
Baltimore: 162.0 vs Pittsburgh: 78.5
Turnovers (L5) +42.8% more
Baltimore: 1.9 vs Pittsburgh: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +21.0% more
Baltimore: 19.0 vs Pittsburgh: 15.0
Total Yards (L5) +20.3% more
Baltimore: 351.3 vs Pittsburgh: 280.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 10.0 24
PIT Score 20.0 26
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
BAL
PIT
BAL
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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