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WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

4-12  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 4:25 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

11-5  |  Home

17
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
COMMANDERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Philadelphia)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 EaglesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

30.9%

Eagles Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

WSH By 1-6 points

12.9%

WSH By 7-13 points

9.6%

PHI By 1-6 points

16.5%

PHI By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21
WASHINGTON
28
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON
27
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o38.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Sim u38.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 WSH @ PHI 22 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 24 - 17
Dec 20, 2025 PHI @ WSH 29 - 18
Jan 26, 2025 WSH @ PHI 23 - 55
Dec 22, 2024 PHI @ WSH 33 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.7% more
Philadelphia: 215.7 vs Washington: 184.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Philadelphia: 352.5 vs Washington: 318.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +8.5% more
Philadelphia: 5.7 vs Washington: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 21.0 24
PHI Score 28.0 17
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
PHI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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