TENNESSEE
TITANSTEN
3-13 | Road
7
JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARSJAX
12-4 | Home
41
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
100%
JAGUARS
0%
TITANS
--
JAGUARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Jacksonville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JAX -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)
TEN By 1-6 points
13.5%
TEN By 7-13 points
10.4%
JAX By 1-6 points
16.7%
JAX By 7-13 points
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee
24
TENNESSEE
Jacksonville
30
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
Tennessee
20
TENNESSEE
Jacksonville
24
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jaguars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaguars
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jaguars (+13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Jaguars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o47.0
Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim
u47.0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
TEN @ JAX
7 - 41
Nov 30, 2025
JAX @ TEN
25 - 3
Dec 29, 2024
TEN @ JAX
13 - 20
Dec 8, 2024
JAX @ TEN
10 - 6
Jan 7, 2024
JAX @ TEN
20 - 28
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+46.4% more
Jacksonville: 20.2
vs
Tennessee: 13.8
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+44.6% more
Jacksonville: 214.6
vs
Tennessee: 148.4
Total Yards (L5)
+26.7% more
Jacksonville: 324.9
vs
Tennessee: 256.3
Yards Per Play (L5)
+22.8% more
Jacksonville: 5.2
vs
Tennessee: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEN Score
24.0
7
JAX Score
30.0
41
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -7.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
JAX
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -7.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
JAX
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
TEN
JAX
TEN
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
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