Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Vikings GB @ MIN

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

9-6-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 1:00 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

8-8  |  Home

16
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
100%
📊
VIKINGS
0%
PACKERS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
PackersGB (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

47.2%

Vikings Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

GB By 1-6 points

16.1%

GB By 7-13 points

14.6%

MIN By 1-6 points

16.7%

MIN By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
27
GREEN BAY
28
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
20
GREEN BAY
24
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o37.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u37.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 GB @ MIN 22 - 39
Jan 4, 2026 GB @ MIN 3 - 16
Nov 23, 2025 MIN @ GB 6 - 23
Dec 29, 2024 GB @ MIN 25 - 27
Sep 29, 2024 MIN @ GB 31 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +100.9% more
Minnesota: 2.1 vs Green Bay: 1.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +39.5% more
Green Bay: 221.2 vs Minnesota: 133.9
Total Yards (L5) +27.1% more
Green Bay: 341.1 vs Minnesota: 248.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +23.6% more
Green Bay: 5.8 vs Minnesota: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 27.0 3
MIN Score 28.0 16
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
GB
MIN
GB
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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