Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Roos @ Pioneers KC @ DEN

KANSAS CITY

ROOSKC

3-11  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 4:00 PM ET
Hamilton Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

7-8  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
ROOS
100%
📊
PIONEERS
0%
ROOS --
PIONEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Denver)
RoosKC (-3.5) 0 PioneersDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Roos Cover

6.7%

Pioneers Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

KC By 1-7 points

4.8%

KC By 8-14 points

1.1%

DEN By 1-7 points

15.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
KANSAS CITY
89
DENVER
Simulated Score
65
KANSAS CITY
78
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pioneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pioneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pioneers (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Pioneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 DEN @ KC 69 - 61
Dec 31, 2025 KC @ DEN 74 - 87
Feb 27, 2025 DEN @ KC 56 - 64
Jan 30, 2025 KC @ DEN 68 - 69
Mar 9, 2024 DEN @ KC 61 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
Denver: 51.8% vs Kansas City: 41.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
Denver: 79.8% vs Kansas City: 74.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Denver: 41.3% vs Kansas City: 37.1%
Turnovers (L5) +25.4% more
Kansas City: 15.3 vs Denver: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 74.0 74
DEN Score 89.0 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.3 / 37.1 35.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.8 / 13.5 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.7 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.8 / 41.5 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 79.8 / 74.0 81.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 34.7 34.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.5 / 7.2 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 15.3 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
4-27-0 (12.9%)
Margin: -14.5 ATS +/-: -6.4
DEN Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
5-23-0 (17.9%)
Margin: -14.5 ATS +/-: -6.4
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.1
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
KC
DEN
KC
ML
56% 18-14
63% 19-11
59% 19-13
67% 20-10
ATS
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
59% 19-13
67% 20-10
TTL
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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