Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Lancers WIN @ LONG

WINTHROP

EAGLESWIN

8-7  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 3:00 PM ET
Joan Perry Brock Center
View Odds Details →

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

8-7  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
LANCERS
100%
EAGLES --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
WINTHROP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Winthrop)
EaglesWIN (-3.5) 0 LancersLONG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

84.1%

Lancers Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WIN -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIN)

WIN By 1-7 points

23.0%

WIN By 8-14 points

27.2%

LONG By 1-7 points

10.7%

LONG By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
93
WINTHROP
83
LONGWOOD
Simulated Score
68
WINTHROP
73
LONGWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 LONG @ WIN 74 - 79
Dec 31, 2025 WIN @ LONG 70 - 82
Mar 7, 2025 LONG @ WIN 79 - 88
Feb 27, 2025 WIN @ LONG 85 - 59
Jan 11, 2025 LONG @ WIN 76 - 95
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Winthrop: 31.5% vs Longwood: 29.6%
Turnovers (L5) +21.8% more
Longwood: 15.7 vs Winthrop: 12.9
Blocks (L5) +18.1% more
Longwood: 3.5 vs Winthrop: 2.9
Assists (L5) +11.0% more
Longwood: 16.2 vs Winthrop: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIN Score 93.0 70
LONG Score 83.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 31.5 39.0 / 21.0
Assists 16.2 / 14.6 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.9 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.9 / 44.1 52.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 71.4 71.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 39.5 / 39.9 41.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.2 / 8.6 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 12.9 13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIN Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
LONG
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIN
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
LONG Advantage
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LONG
WIN
LONG
WIN
ML
65% 20-11
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
ATS
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
TTL
65% 20-11
58% 19-14
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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