WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
7-24 | Road
114
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
14-19 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
0%
BUCKS
100%
WIZARDS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
WSH By 1-7 points
23.0%
WSH By 8-14 points
27.2%
MIL By 1-7 points
10.7%
MIL By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
105
WASHINGTON
Milwaukee
95
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Washington
108
WASHINGTON
Milwaukee
122
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wizards
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
MIL @ WSH
99 - 109
Dec 31, 2025
WSH @ MIL
114 - 113
Dec 1, 2025
MIL @ WSH
126 - 129
Oct 22, 2025
WSH @ MIL
120 - 133
Feb 21, 2025
MIL @ WSH
104 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.7% more
Washington: 8.1
vs
Milwaukee: 3.8
Rebounding (L5)
+13.2% more
Washington: 47.2
vs
Milwaukee: 41.0
Steals (L5)
+41.1% more
Milwaukee: 9.4
vs
Washington: 6.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Milwaukee: 39.1%
vs
Washington: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
105.0
114
MIL Score
95.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 34.7
41.0 / 49.0
Assists
24.2 / 23.8
24.0 / 31.0
Blocks
3.8 / 8.1
6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 46.3
46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
80.4 / 81.5
68.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
41.0 / 47.2
48.0 / 44.0
Steals
9.4 / 6.7
2.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 14.4
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
WSH
MIL
WSH
ML
64%
61-35
70%
112-49
60%
49-32
47%
39-44
ATS
68%
65-31
69%
111-49-1
60%
49-32
47%
39-44
TTL
55%
53-43
74%
119-41-1
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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