Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Patriots @ Explorers GMU @ LAS

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

12-1  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 2:00 PM ET
John Glaser Arena
View Odds Details →

LA SALLE

EXPLORERSLAS

4-9  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
📊
EXPLORERS
100%
PATRIOTS --
EXPLORERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
LA SALLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PatriotsGMU (-3.5) 0 ExplorersLAS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

27.4%

Explorers Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAS +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAS)

GMU By 1-7 points

26.8%

GMU By 8-14 points

24.3%

LAS By 1-7 points

16.9%

LAS By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
72
GEORGE MASON
66
LA SALLE
Simulated Score
67
GEORGE MASON
71
LA SALLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Explorers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Explorers (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Explorers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 GMU @ LAS 80 - 75
Mar 5, 2025 LAS @ GMU 62 - 69
Jan 3, 2024 GMU @ LAS 77 - 62
Feb 18, 2023 LAS @ GMU 66 - 70
Feb 5, 2022 GMU @ LAS 78 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.7% more
George Mason: 4.1 vs La Salle: 2.8
Assists (L5) +12.2% more
George Mason: 13.2 vs La Salle: 11.6
Field Goal % (L5) +11.9%
George Mason: 50.1% vs La Salle: 38.1%
Turnovers (L5) +69.1% more
La Salle: 15.5 vs George Mason: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GMU Score 72.0 80
LAS Score 66.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.3 / 24.6 32.0 / 31.0
Assists 11.6 / 13.2 13.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.1 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.1 / 50.1 39.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 68.3 70.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 37.7 39.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.8 / 5.7 0.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 9.2 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
LAS
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GMU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
LAS
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
LAS
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAS
GMU
LAS
GMU
ML
69% 22-10
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
ATS
78% 25-7
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
73% 24-9
TTL
66% 21-11
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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