Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Ragin' Cajuns USA @ UL

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

10-4  |  Road

63
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 1:00 PM ET
Cajundome
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

3-11  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
RAGIN' CAJUNS
0%
JAGUARS --
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Louisiana)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 Ragin' CajunsUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

1.8%

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UL -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

USA By 1-7 points

1.4%

USA By 8-14 points

0.2%

UL By 1-7 points

6.8%

UL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
62
SOUTH ALABAMA
83
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH ALABAMA
72
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ragin' Cajuns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ragin' Cajuns (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Ragin' Cajuns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o125.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u125.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 UL @ USA 59 - 56
Dec 31, 2025 USA @ UL 63 - 58
Feb 28, 2025 UL @ USA 42 - 65
Feb 1, 2025 USA @ UL 62 - 58
Feb 3, 2024 USA @ UL 60 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +35.0% more
Louisiana: 12.8 vs South Alabama: 9.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Louisiana: 35.2% vs South Alabama: 30.1%
Steals (L5) +38.9% more
South Alabama: 10.3 vs Louisiana: 6.3
Turnovers (L5) +14.1% more
South Alabama: 10.9 vs Louisiana: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 62.0 63
UL Score 83.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 30.1 32.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.8 / 9.5 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.8 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 47.3 35.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 71.1 71.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 35.8 29.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.3 / 10.3 3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 10.9 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
USA
UL
USA
ML
66% 21-11
47% 15-17
63% 19-11
57% 17-13
ATS
66% 21-11
53% 17-15
63% 19-11
57% 17-13
TTL
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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