Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Terriers @ Midshipmen BU @ NAVY

BOSTON UNIVERSITY

TERRIERSBU

5-8  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 1:00 PM ET
Alumni Hall (Navy)
View Odds Details →

NAVY

MIDSHIPMENNAVY

8-5  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
TERRIERS
100%
📊
MIDSHIPMEN
0%
TERRIERS --
MIDSHIPMEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Navy)
TerriersBU (-3.5) 0 MidshipmenNAVY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Terriers Cover

4.5%

Midshipmen Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NAVY -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

BU By 1-7 points

3.3%

BU By 8-14 points

0.6%

NAVY By 1-7 points

12.2%

NAVY By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
87
NAVY
Simulated Score
67
BOSTON UNIVERSITY
71
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Midshipmen Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Midshipmen Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Midshipmen (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Midshipmen (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 BU @ NAVY 73 - 72
Jan 28, 2026 NAVY @ BU 58 - 50
Dec 31, 2025 BU @ NAVY 77 - 82
Mar 6, 2025 NAVY @ BU 86 - 78
Feb 5, 2025 NAVY @ BU 65 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.8% more
Navy: 7.5 vs Boston University: 5.9
Rebounding (L5) +21.6% more
Navy: 37.8 vs Boston University: 31.1
Free Throw % (L5) +17.4%
Navy: 81.7% vs Boston University: 64.3%
Assists (L5) +13.0% more
Navy: 14.7 vs Boston University: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BU Score 70.0 77
NAVY Score 87.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 38.9 40.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.7 / 13.0 15.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.1 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 51.1 47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 81.7 / 64.3 73.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 31.1 37.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.5 / 5.9 4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 12.4 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
NAVY Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +0.2
NAVY Advantage
20-11-1 (64.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +8.4
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
BU
NAVY
BU
ML
79% 26-7
68% 23-11
55% 18-15
62% 21-13
ATS
73% 24-9
62% 21-13
55% 18-15
62% 21-13
TTL
73% 24-9
65% 22-12
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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