Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Storm @ Hoyas SJU @ GTWN

ST. JOHN'S

RED STORMSJU

8-4  |  Road

95
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 8:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGETOWN

HOYASGTWN

9-4  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
RED STORM
100%
📊
HOYAS
0%
RED STORM --
HOYAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
GEORGETOWN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Georgetown)
Red StormSJU (-3.5) 0 HoyasGTWN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Storm Cover

0.0%

Hoyas Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GTWN -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GTWN)

SJU By 1-7 points

0.0%

SJU By 8-14 points

0.0%

GTWN By 1-7 points

0.3%

GTWN By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
64
ST. JOHN'S
99
GEORGETOWN
Simulated Score
79
ST. JOHN'S
72
GEORGETOWN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hoyas Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Storm Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hoyas (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim Red Storm (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 GTWN @ SJU 69 - 72
Dec 31, 2025 SJU @ GTWN 95 - 83
Jan 28, 2025 SJU @ GTWN 66 - 41
Jan 14, 2025 GTWN @ SJU 58 - 63
Mar 9, 2024 GTWN @ SJU 78 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.1% more
Georgetown: 17.6 vs St. John's: 15.4
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Georgetown: 47.2% vs St. John's: 44.1%
Turnovers (L5) +30.8% more
St. John's: 12.7 vs Georgetown: 8.8
Blocks (L5) +26.6% more
St. John's: 5.8 vs Georgetown: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJU Score 64.0 95
GTWN Score 99.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 35.0 43.0 / 56.0
Assists 17.6 / 15.4 15.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.8 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 44.1 46.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 79.2 78.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 36.5 33.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.6 / 8.6 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 12.7 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
GTWN
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJU Advantage
22-13-1 (62.9%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
GTWN
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9% Total +/-: -3.6
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GTWN
SJU
GTWN
SJU
ML
67% 22-11
62% 18-11
73% 22-8
62% 18-11
ATS
58% 19-14
66% 19-10
73% 22-8
62% 18-11
TTL
58% 19-14
59% 17-12
100% 30-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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