Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Thundering Herd GAST @ MRSH

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

4-10  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Dec 31 • 4:00 PM ET
Cam Henderson Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

8-5  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
100%
PANTHERS --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Georgia State)
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

99.5%

Thundering Herd Cover

0.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GAST -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)

GAST By 1-7 points

2.7%

GAST By 8-14 points

9.3%

MRSH By 1-7 points

0.4%

MRSH By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
GEORGIA STATE
60
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
72
GEORGIA STATE
78
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thundering Herd Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Thundering Herd (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 MRSH @ GAST 73 - 81
Dec 31, 2025 GAST @ MRSH 80 - 84
Mar 7, 2025 GAST @ MRSH 76 - 79
Jan 30, 2025 GAST @ MRSH 85 - 81
Jan 23, 2025 MRSH @ GAST 92 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +51.1% more
Georgia State: 8.0 vs Marshall: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Georgia State: 35.5% vs Marshall: 29.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Georgia State: 77.2% vs Marshall: 73.4%
Blocks (L5) +123.4% more
Marshall: 6.8 vs Georgia State: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 86.0 80
MRSH Score 60.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 35.5 40.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.0 / 13.9 18.0 / 11.0
Blocks 6.8 / 3.0 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 43.6 49.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 77.2 64.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 41.6 / 38.4 34.0 / 36.0
Steals 3.9 / 8.0 11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 10.1 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
GAST
MRSH
GAST
ML
70% 21-9
56% 18-14
62% 18-11
71% 22-9
ATS
70% 21-9
59% 19-13
62% 18-11
71% 22-9
TTL
50% 15-15
59% 19-13
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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