Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Golden Bears LOU @ CAL

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

10-2  |  Road

90
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 9:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

12-1  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
CARDINALS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (California)
CardinalsLOU (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

0.0%

Golden Bears Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

LOU By 1-7 points

0.0%

LOU By 8-14 points

0.0%

CAL By 1-7 points

0.1%

CAL By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
52
LOUISVILLE
92
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
68
LOUISVILLE
72
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears (+8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 30, 2025 LOU @ CAL 90 - 70
Mar 5, 2025 CAL @ LOU 68 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +77.2% more
California: 4.6 vs Louisville: 2.6
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
California: 82.5% vs Louisville: 74.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
California: 40.9% vs Louisville: 34.6%
Turnovers (L5) +38.0% more
Louisville: 13.3 vs California: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 52.0 90
CAL Score 92.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.9 / 34.6 35.0 / 38.0
Assists 15.0 / 18.3 14.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.6 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 47.5 34.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 74.6 78.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 39.8 31.0 / 50.0
Steals 8.1 / 8.1 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 13.3 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
CAL
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
LOU
CAL
LOU
ML
61% 20-13
63% 22-13
77% 24-7
71% 24-10
ATS
64% 21-12
71% 25-10
78% 25-7
71% 24-10
TTL
70% 23-10
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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