Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / RedHawks @ Falcons M-OH @ BGSU

MIAMI (OH)

REDHAWKSM-OH

13-0  |  Road

93
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Stroh Center
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

10-3  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
REDHAWKS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Miami (OH))
RedHawksM-OH (-3.5) 0 FalconsBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

RedHawks Cover

78.8%

Falcons Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around M-OH -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

M-OH By 1-7 points

25.3%

M-OH By 8-14 points

26.2%

BGSU By 1-7 points

13.7%

BGSU By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
97
MIAMI (OH)
89
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
68
MIAMI (OH)
72
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI RedHawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI RedHawks (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 BGSU @ M-OH 77 - 91
Dec 30, 2025 M-OH @ BGSU 93 - 83
Jan 21, 2025 BGSU @ M-OH 76 - 84
Feb 27, 2024 M-OH @ BGSU 66 - 58
Jan 16, 2024 BGSU @ M-OH 78 - 73
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +18.8%
Miami (OH): 53.6% vs Bowling Green: 34.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Miami (OH): 60.0% vs Bowling Green: 52.3%
Steals (L5) +115.7% more
Bowling Green: 13.9 vs Miami (OH): 6.4
Blocks (L5) +19.0% more
Bowling Green: 3.1 vs Miami (OH): 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 97.0 93
BGSU Score 89.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.7 / 53.6 23.0 / 48.0
Assists 20.5 / 21.7 12.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.6 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 52.3 / 60.0 49.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 75.5 70.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 33.8 28.0 / 34.0
Steals 13.9 / 6.4 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 9.6 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH Advantage
32-2-0 (94.1%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
BGSU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
BGSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +5.6
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
M-OH
BGSU
M-OH
ML
66% 21-11
45% 15-18
56% 18-14
41% 13-19
ATS
72% 23-9
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
41% 13-19
TTL
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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