Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Lions PAC @ LMU

PACIFIC

TIGERSPAC

9-5  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 10:00 PM ET
Gersten Pavilion
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

9-5  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
TIGERS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TigersPAC (-3.5) 0 LionsLMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

38.2%

Lions Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LMU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LMU)

PAC By 1-7 points

27.2%

PAC By 8-14 points

20.1%

LMU By 1-7 points

21.6%

LMU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
68
PACIFIC
65
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
68
PACIFIC
75
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 LMU @ PAC 59 - 65
Dec 30, 2025 PAC @ LMU 71 - 80
Feb 13, 2025 PAC @ LMU 83 - 58
Jan 23, 2025 LMU @ PAC 73 - 68
Feb 24, 2024 LMU @ PAC 86 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +37.5% more
Pacific: 17.2 vs Loyola Marymount: 10.7
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Pacific: 37.5 vs Loyola Marymount: 33.9
Assists (L5) +8.5% more
Pacific: 16.4 vs Loyola Marymount: 15.0
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Pacific: 64.9% vs Loyola Marymount: 62.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PAC Score 68.0 71
LMU Score 65.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 30.5 42.0 / 47.0
Assists 15.0 / 16.4 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.3 / 3.1 9.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 49.6 49.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 62.5 / 64.9 70.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 37.5 31.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.7 / 4.8 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 17.2 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PAC Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
LMU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PAC Advantage
16-14-1 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +2.0
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5% Total +/-: -2.0
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
PAC
LMU
PAC
ML
53% 17-15
45% 15-18
50% 16-16
80% 24-6
ATS
47% 15-17
55% 18-15
50% 16-16
80% 24-6
TTL
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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