Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Seminoles @ Tar Heels FSU @ UNC

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

7-6  |  Road

66
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

12-1  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
0%
📊
TAR HEELS
100%
SEMINOLES --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Florida State)
SeminolesFSU (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seminoles Cover

93.3%

Tar Heels Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FSU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

FSU By 1-7 points

15.3%

FSU By 8-14 points

25.3%

UNC By 1-7 points

4.8%

UNC By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
92
FLORIDA STATE
77
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
72
FLORIDA STATE
78
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Seminoles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Seminoles (-13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o166.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 30, 2025 FSU @ UNC 66 - 79
Feb 24, 2025 UNC @ FSU 96 - 85
Mar 14, 2024 FSU @ UNC 67 - 92
Jan 27, 2024 UNC @ FSU 75 - 68
Dec 2, 2023 FSU @ UNC 70 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.7% more
Florida State: 12.0 vs North Carolina: 9.2
Steals (L5) +16.7% more
Florida State: 7.6 vs North Carolina: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5) +11.9%
Florida State: 74.4% vs North Carolina: 62.5%
Blocks (L5) +44.8% more
North Carolina: 4.1 vs Florida State: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 92.0 66
UNC Score 77.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 31.1 24.0 / 30.0
Assists 19.0 / 16.2 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 42.9 43.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 62.5 / 74.4 70.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 41.7 / 40.0 47.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.6 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 12.0 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
UNC
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
FSU
UNC
FSU
ML
76% 25-8
64% 21-12
69% 22-10
59% 19-13
ATS
73% 24-9
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
59% 19-13
TTL
55% 18-15
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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