Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buccaneers @ Bulldogs ETSU @ CIT

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

8-5  |  Road

74
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 6:00 PM ET
McAlister Field House
View Odds Details →

THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

3-10  |  Home

49
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
BUCCANEERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (East Tennessee State)
BuccaneersETSU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsCIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

98.6%

Bulldogs Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ETSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

ETSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

ETSU By 8-14 points

15.3%

CIT By 1-7 points

1.1%

CIT By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
81
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
59
THE CITADEL
Simulated Score
73
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
68
THE CITADEL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 CIT @ ETSU 76 - 83
Jan 23, 2026 CIT @ ETSU 55 - 84
Dec 30, 2025 ETSU @ CIT 74 - 49
Mar 1, 2025 ETSU @ CIT 81 - 66
Jan 11, 2025 CIT @ ETSU 52 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +62.7% more
East Tennessee State: 4.9 vs The Citadel: 1.8
Steals (L5) +28.4% more
East Tennessee State: 7.3 vs The Citadel: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5) +13.1%
East Tennessee State: 74.1% vs The Citadel: 61.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
East Tennessee State: 38.5% vs The Citadel: 30.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 81.0 74
CIT Score 59.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 38.5 22.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.6 / 13.6 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.8 / 4.9 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.1 / 47.7 33.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 61.1 / 74.1 62.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 28.6 28.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.2 / 7.3 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 10.7 17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
CIT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIT
ETSU
CIT
ETSU
ML
59% 19-13
42% 14-19
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
ATS
62% 20-12
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
70% 23-10
TTL
53% 17-15
45% 15-18
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 16 hours ago
Houston Cougars Erase 17-Point Deficit to Stun UCF in Space Game
si 5 days, 3 hours ago
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 16 hours ago
David Stearns Opens Up on Mets' 2026 Failures, Offseason Plans a…
si 1 week, 3 days ago
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…
si 1 week, 3 days ago