SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
3-4 | Road
100
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
4-3 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
SPURS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.7
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.7 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -8.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
SA By 1-7 points
12.6%
SA By 8-14 points
4.3%
HOU By 1-7 points
24.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
103.89
SAN ANTONIO
Houston
112.58
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Houston
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 216.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
HOU @ SA
120 - 145
Jan 28, 2026
SA @ HOU
111 - 99
Jan 20, 2026
SA @ HOU
106 - 111
Nov 7, 2025
HOU @ SA
110 - 121
Feb 26, 2025
SA @ HOU
106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.8% more
San Antonio: 7.1
vs
Houston: 4.9
Steals (L5)
+25.7% more
San Antonio: 8.8
vs
Houston: 6.5
Turnovers (L5)
+21.6% more
San Antonio: 14.7
vs
Houston: 11.5
Assists (L5)
+11.8% more
San Antonio: 25.5
vs
Houston: 22.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
103.9
100
HOU Score
112.6
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.6 / 29.8
37.0 / 38.9
Assists
22.5 / 25.5
28.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.9 / 7.1
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 45.5
56.3 / 44.6
Free Throw %
78.7 / 83.6
60.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
48.6 / 45.6
45.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.5 / 8.8
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 14.7
12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SA
HOU
SA
ML
61%
69-44
60%
111-73
59%
51-35
58%
61-44
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
107-76-1
59%
51-35
58%
61-44
TTL
51%
58-55
74%
134-47-3
100%
86-0
100%
105-0
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