Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Warriors DAL @ GS

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

5-5  |  Road

117
FINAL
Tue, Nov 12 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

8-2  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
MAVERICKS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.2
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.2 points (Golden State)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

30.3%

Warriors Cover

69.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -5.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

DAL By 1-7 points

18.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

7.8%

GS By 1-7 points

27.2%

GS By 8-14 points

23.2%

AI Model Projected Score
114.27
DALLAS
119.44
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
DALLAS
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 233.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 GS @ DAL 137 - 131
Jan 22, 2026 GS @ DAL 115 - 123
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ GS 116 - 126
Feb 23, 2025 DAL @ GS 102 - 126
Feb 12, 2025 GS @ DAL 107 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +24.4% more
Golden State: 8.8 vs Dallas: 7.1
Turnovers (L5) +19.3% more
Golden State: 13.9 vs Dallas: 11.7
Assists (L5) +17.6% more
Golden State: 30.7 vs Dallas: 26.1
Blocks (L5) +17.4% more
Golden State: 4.6 vs Dallas: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 114.3 117
GS Score 119.4 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 32.9 34.1 / 32.4
Assists 30.7 / 26.1 29.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.9 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 50.7 47.9 / 52.4
Free Throw % 72.8 / 78.5 59.3 / 75.0
Rebounding 46.5 / 42.5 50.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.8 / 7.1 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 11.7 13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
DAL
GS
DAL
ML
55% 95-79
62% 63-39
58% 49-35
54% 44-37
ATS
58% 101-73
67% 68-34
58% 49-35
54% 44-37
TTL
77% 134-40
59% 60-41-1
100% 84-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 1 hour, 23 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 7 hours, 15 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 7 hours, 26 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 7 hours, 33 minutes ago
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
si 13 hours, 46 minutes ago