WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
2-7 | Road
130
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
5-6 | Home
139
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
SPURS
0%
WIZARDS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
212.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
WSH By 1-7 points
20.7%
WSH By 8-14 points
9.8%
SA By 1-7 points
27.3%
SA By 8-14 points
21.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
104.64
WASHINGTON
San Antonio
108.24
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Washington
WASHINGTON
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 212.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 21, 2025
SA @ WSH
124 - 113
Dec 18, 2025
WSH @ SA
94 - 119
Feb 10, 2025
SA @ WSH
131 - 121
Nov 13, 2024
WSH @ SA
130 - 139
Jan 29, 2024
WSH @ SA
118 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.4% more
San Antonio: 29.0
vs
Washington: 23.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.3%
San Antonio: 88.7%
vs
Washington: 75.4%
Rebounding (L5)
+10.6% more
San Antonio: 42.6
vs
Washington: 38.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
San Antonio: 39.8%
vs
Washington: 31.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
104.6
130
SA Score
108.2
139
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 31.2
40.9 / 40.9
Assists
29.0 / 23.5
38.0 / 27.0
Blocks
6.5 / 6.6
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 43.1
52.2 / 51.6
Free Throw %
88.7 / 75.4
78.1 / 87.5
Rebounding
42.6 / 38.5
39.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.1 / 9.9
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
17.7 / 16.8
9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
WSH
SA
WSH
ML
60%
111-73
70%
112-49
58%
61-44
47%
39-44
ATS
58%
107-76-1
69%
111-49-1
58%
61-44
47%
39-44
TTL
74%
134-47-3
74%
119-41-1
100%
105-0
100%
83-0
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