ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
7-8 | Road
97
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
10-3 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
HAWKS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.2
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -7.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
ATL By 1-7 points
15.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
5.6%
GS By 1-7 points
26.0%
GS By 8-14 points
25.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
115.27
ATLANTA
Golden State
122.49
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
ATLANTA
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
GS @ ATL
110 - 126
Jan 11, 2026
ATL @ GS
124 - 111
Mar 22, 2025
GS @ ATL
115 - 124
Nov 20, 2024
ATL @ GS
97 - 120
Feb 3, 2024
GS @ ATL
134 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+11.5% more
Golden State: 48.6
vs
Atlanta: 43.6
Steals (L5)
+10.1% more
Golden State: 10.5
vs
Atlanta: 9.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Golden State: 38.4%
vs
Atlanta: 36.4%
Blocks (L5)
+26.0% more
Atlanta: 6.5
vs
Golden State: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
115.3
97
GS Score
122.5
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 36.4
35.0 / 26.7
Assists
29.7 / 31.4
36.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.8 / 6.5
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 46.9
46.5 / 33.3
Free Throw %
62.2 / 79.3
66.7 / 62.5
Rebounding
48.6 / 43.6
54.0 / 65.0
Steals
10.5 / 9.6
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 17.6
15.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
ATL
GS
ATL
ML
55%
95-79
50%
52-52
58%
49-35
55%
48-40
ATS
58%
101-73
53%
55-48-1
58%
49-35
55%
48-40
TTL
77%
134-40
53%
55-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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