Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Spurs UTAH @ SA

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

3-11  |  Road

118
FINAL
Thu, Nov 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

7-8  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
JAZZ --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.5
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (San Antonio)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

22.7%

Spurs Cover

77.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -7.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

UTAH By 1-7 points

14.5%

UTAH By 8-14 points

5.3%

SA By 1-7 points

25.8%

SA By 8-14 points

25.8%

AI Model Projected Score
106.31
UTAH
113.81
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
UTAH
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 SA @ UTAH 126 - 109
Jan 19, 2026 UTAH @ SA 110 - 123
Dec 27, 2025 UTAH @ SA 127 - 114
Oct 10, 2025 UTAH @ SA 130 - 134
Nov 26, 2024 SA @ UTAH 128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +262.5% more
San Antonio: 6.4 vs Utah: 1.8
Assists (L5) +18.8% more
San Antonio: 29.6 vs Utah: 24.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
San Antonio: 37.4% vs Utah: 35.5%
Steals (L5) +21.7% more
Utah: 8.8 vs San Antonio: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 106.3 118
SA Score 113.8 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 35.5 28.1 / 28.9
Assists 29.6 / 24.9 32.0 / 22.0
Blocks 6.4 / 1.8 9.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 49.1 46.6 / 41.8
Free Throw % 78.4 / 80.8 76.1 / 88.5
Rebounding 43.5 / 40.4 51.0 / 49.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.8 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 17.3 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
UTAH
SA
UTAH
ML
60% 111-73
60% 96-63
58% 61-44
48% 40-43
ATS
58% 107-76-1
68% 108-51
58% 61-44
48% 40-43
TTL
74% 134-47-3
75% 119-39-1
100% 105-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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