Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Jazz SA @ UTAH

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

9-8  |  Road

128
FINAL
Tue, Nov 26 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

4-12  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
📊
JAZZ
0%
SPURS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Utah)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

47.2%

Jazz Cover

52.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

SA By 1-7 points

24.6%

SA By 8-14 points

14.2%

UTAH By 1-7 points

26.0%

UTAH By 8-14 points

16.5%

AI Model Projected Score
111.49
SAN ANTONIO
112.2
UTAH
Simulated Score
SAN ANTONIO
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jazz (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 SA @ UTAH 126 - 109
Jan 19, 2026 UTAH @ SA 110 - 123
Dec 27, 2025 UTAH @ SA 127 - 114
Oct 10, 2025 UTAH @ SA 130 - 134
Nov 26, 2024 SA @ UTAH 128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.9% more
Utah: 16.8 vs San Antonio: 12.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
Utah: 40.8% vs San Antonio: 32.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Utah: 48.0% vs San Antonio: 45.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
Utah: 80.2% vs San Antonio: 78.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 111.5 128
UTAH Score 112.2 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 32.1 37.1 / 37.5
Assists 25.9 / 29.9 24.0 / 30.0
Blocks 3.7 / 7.8 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 45.1 51.2 / 48.4
Free Throw % 80.2 / 78.1 80.0 / 76.9
Rebounding 46.2 / 46.7 41.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.1 / 6.5 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 16.8 / 12.6 21.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
UTAH
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
SA
UTAH
SA
ML
60% 96-63
60% 111-73
48% 40-43
58% 61-44
ATS
68% 108-51
58% 107-76-1
48% 40-43
58% 61-44
TTL
75% 119-39-1
74% 134-47-3
100% 83-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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