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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

13-4  |  Road

105
FINAL
Wed, Nov 27 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

12-5  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
THUNDER --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

46.2%

Warriors Cover

53.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

OKC By 1-7 points

24.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

13.8%

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
114.99
OKLAHOMA CITY
115.95
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
OKLAHOMA CITY
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 GS @ OKC 97 - 104
Jan 2, 2026 OKC @ GS 131 - 94
Dec 2, 2025 OKC @ GS 124 - 112
Nov 11, 2025 GS @ OKC 102 - 126
Jan 29, 2025 OKC @ GS 109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +18.6% more
Golden State: 30.5 vs Oklahoma City: 25.8
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
Golden State: 47.9 vs Oklahoma City: 42.9
Steals (L5) +31.0% more
Oklahoma City: 10.7 vs Golden State: 7.4
Free Throw % (L5) +18.2%
Oklahoma City: 83.6% vs Golden State: 65.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 115.0 105
GS Score 116.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 35.9 32.0 / 29.7
Assists 30.5 / 25.8 25.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.4 6.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 48.1 35.7 / 45.9
Free Throw % 65.3 / 83.6 71.4 / 61.5
Rebounding 47.9 / 42.9 57.0 / 48.0
Steals 7.4 / 10.7 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 13.1 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
OKC
GS
OKC
ML
55% 95-79
70% 80-34
58% 49-35
48% 46-49
ATS
58% 101-73
73% 83-30-1
58% 49-35
48% 46-49
TTL
77% 134-40
67% 76-38
100% 84-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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