GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
12-6 | Road
105
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
10-8 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
SUNS
100%
WARRIORS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
27.4%
GS By 8-14 points
21.2%
PHX By 1-7 points
20.6%
PHX By 8-14 points
9.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
113.22
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
109.5
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Phoenix
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 17, 2026
GS @ PHX
96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026
GS @ PHX
101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025
PHX @ GS
116 - 119
Dec 18, 2025
GS @ PHX
98 - 99
Nov 4, 2025
PHX @ GS
107 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.7% more
Golden State: 5.2
vs
Phoenix: 3.6
Rebounding (L5)
+20.1% more
Golden State: 50.9
vs
Phoenix: 40.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.5%
Phoenix: 77.9%
vs
Golden State: 67.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
Phoenix: 49.3%
vs
Golden State: 41.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
113.2
105
PHX Score
109.5
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 35.1
51.4 / 35.0
Assists
27.0 / 28.7
31.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.2
9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 41.8
48.1 / 41.3
Free Throw %
77.9 / 67.4
86.4 / 83.3
Rebounding
40.7 / 50.9
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.8 / 7.2
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 14.6
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
GS
PHX
GS
ML
57%
60-45
55%
95-79
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
101-73
51%
45-43
58%
49-35
TTL
59%
61-42-2
77%
134-40
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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