SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
10-9 | Road
127
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
9-11 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
KINGS
0%
SPURS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SA By 1-7 points
20.7%
SA By 8-14 points
9.8%
SAC By 1-7 points
27.3%
SAC By 8-14 points
21.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
109.53
SAN ANTONIO
Sacramento
113.17
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Sacramento
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
SA @ SAC
132 - 104
Feb 21, 2026
SAC @ SA
122 - 139
Nov 16, 2025
SAC @ SA
110 - 123
Mar 7, 2025
SA @ SAC
109 - 127
Dec 6, 2024
SAC @ SA
140 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.9% more
Sacramento: 16.8
vs
San Antonio: 12.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Sacramento: 46.7%
vs
San Antonio: 44.9%
Blocks (L5)
+27.3% more
San Antonio: 5.9
vs
Sacramento: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.5%
San Antonio: 83.1%
vs
Sacramento: 73.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
109.5
127
SAC Score
113.2
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 34.3
37.5 / 50.0
Assists
26.0 / 28.6
32.0 / 32.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.9
5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 44.9
46.5 / 51.2
Free Throw %
73.5 / 83.1
79.2 / 83.3
Rebounding
41.9 / 42.1
51.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.9
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 12.8
10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
SA
SAC
SA
ML
55%
55-45
60%
111-73
61%
50-32
58%
61-44
ATS
54%
52-45-3
58%
107-76-1
61%
50-32
58%
61-44
TTL
58%
57-42-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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