SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
11-9 | Road
93
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
11-8 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
SUNS
0%
SPURS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.2
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.2 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -7.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
SA By 1-7 points
15.0%
SA By 8-14 points
5.6%
PHX By 1-7 points
26.1%
PHX By 8-14 points
25.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
108.84
SAN ANTONIO
Phoenix
116.04
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Phoenix
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
100 - 101
Feb 19, 2026
PHX @ SA
94 - 121
Nov 23, 2025
SA @ PHX
102 - 111
Nov 2, 2025
SA @ PHX
118 - 130
Apr 11, 2025
SA @ PHX
98 - 117
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Phoenix: 42.2%
vs
San Antonio: 39.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Phoenix: 48.9%
vs
San Antonio: 47.0%
Blocks (L5)
+22.6% more
San Antonio: 7.0
vs
Phoenix: 5.4
Steals (L5)
+10.2% more
San Antonio: 7.3
vs
Phoenix: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
108.8
93
PHX Score
116.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.2 / 39.5
34.4 / 18.2
Assists
28.3 / 29.8
26.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.4 / 7.0
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 47.0
48.7 / 35.0
Free Throw %
80.7 / 83.1
81.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 40.7
44.0 / 53.0
Steals
6.5 / 7.3
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 13.9
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
SA
PHX
SA
ML
57%
60-45
60%
111-73
51%
45-43
58%
61-44
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
107-76-1
51%
45-43
58%
61-44
TTL
59%
61-42-2
74%
134-47-3
100%
88-0
100%
105-0
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