GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
12-7 | Road
115
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
10-8 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
WARRIORS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
GS By 1-7 points
19.1%
GS By 8-14 points
8.4%
DEN By 1-7 points
27.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
22.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
110.75
GOLDEN STATE
Denver
115.42
DENVER
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
GS @ DEN
93 - 116
Feb 22, 2026
DEN @ GS
117 - 128
Nov 7, 2025
GS @ DEN
104 - 129
Oct 23, 2025
DEN @ GS
131 - 137
Apr 4, 2025
DEN @ GS
104 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+12.4% more
Denver: 32.0
vs
Golden State: 28.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.8%
Denver: 53.5%
vs
Golden State: 41.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Denver: 39.3%
vs
Golden State: 35.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+17.0% more
Golden State: 48.3
vs
Denver: 40.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
110.8
115
DEN Score
115.4
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 35.1
45.8 / 31.6
Assists
32.0 / 28.5
32.0 / 36.0
Blocks
4.5 / 5.1
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
53.5 / 41.6
50.6 / 46.3
Free Throw %
69.3 / 72.7
80.0 / 71.4
Rebounding
40.1 / 48.3
38.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.7 / 7.5
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 12.7
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
GS
DEN
GS
ML
54%
57-48
55%
95-79
55%
47-39
58%
49-35
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
101-73
55%
47-39
58%
49-35
TTL
54%
56-48-1
77%
134-40
100%
86-0
100%
84-0
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