SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
10-13 | Road
140
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
11-11 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
SPURS
0%
KINGS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SAC By 1-7 points
24.7%
SAC By 8-14 points
14.3%
SA By 1-7 points
25.9%
SA By 8-14 points
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
110.11
SACRAMENTO
San Antonio
110.74
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Sacramento
SACRAMENTO
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
SA @ SAC
132 - 104
Feb 21, 2026
SAC @ SA
122 - 139
Nov 16, 2025
SAC @ SA
110 - 123
Mar 7, 2025
SA @ SAC
109 - 127
Dec 6, 2024
SAC @ SA
140 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+17.9% more
San Antonio: 4.9
vs
Sacramento: 4.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.1%
San Antonio: 77.6%
vs
Sacramento: 75.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Sacramento: 33.3%
vs
San Antonio: 31.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
110.1
140
SA Score
110.7
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.1 / 33.3
34.1 / 47.1
Assists
27.7 / 26.1
28.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.9 / 4.1
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 45.5
42.9 / 56.7
Free Throw %
77.6 / 75.4
70.0 / 91.7
Rebounding
43.5 / 42.9
42.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.9 / 8.6
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 13.0
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
SAC
SA
SAC
ML
60%
111-73
55%
55-45
58%
61-44
61%
50-32
ATS
58%
107-76-1
54%
52-45-3
58%
61-44
61%
50-32
TTL
74%
134-47-3
58%
57-42-1
100%
105-0
100%
82-0
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