MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
12-10 | Road
106
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
13-9 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
WARRIORS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
25.9%
MIN By 8-14 points
16.3%
GS By 1-7 points
24.7%
GS By 8-14 points
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
113.52
MINNESOTA
Golden State
112.92
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Minnesota
MINNESOTA
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
MIN @ GS
127 - 117
Jan 26, 2026
GS @ MIN
83 - 108
Jan 25, 2026
GS @ MIN
111 - 85
Dec 12, 2025
MIN @ GS
127 - 120
May 14, 2025
GS @ MIN
110 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.9% more
Minnesota: 11.4
vs
Golden State: 8.1
Blocks (L5)
+20.5% more
Minnesota: 5.0
vs
Golden State: 4.0
Assists (L5)
+13.9% more
Minnesota: 29.0
vs
Golden State: 25.0
Turnovers (L5)
+11.8% more
Minnesota: 17.6
vs
Golden State: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
113.5
106
GS Score
112.9
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 36.0
39.0 / 45.2
Assists
25.0 / 29.0
28.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.0
6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 46.2
46.7 / 45.6
Free Throw %
76.3 / 79.9
70.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
47.1 / 46.5
45.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.1 / 11.4
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 17.6
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MIN
GS
MIN
ML
55%
95-79
54%
63-53
58%
49-35
54%
50-43
ATS
58%
101-73
58%
67-49
58%
49-35
54%
50-43
TTL
77%
134-40
63%
72-43-1
100%
84-0
100%
93-0
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