Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Rockets GS @ HOU

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

14-9  |  Road

90
FINAL
Wed, Dec 11 • 9:30 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

16-8  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
WARRIORS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

53.8%

Rockets Cover

46.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

HOU By 1-7 points

24.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
115.74
GOLDEN STATE
114.78
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.1% more
Golden State: 26.0 vs Houston: 21.0
Steals (L5) +17.5% more
Golden State: 8.1 vs Houston: 6.7
Turnovers (L5) +10.2% more
Golden State: 14.7 vs Houston: 13.2
Blocks (L5) +25.9% more
Houston: 5.8 vs Golden State: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 115.7 90
HOU Score 114.8 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 34.1 22.2 / 31.6
Assists 21.0 / 26.0 23.0 / 22.0
Blocks 5.8 / 4.6 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 43.9 / 43.2 45.8 / 44.0
Free Throw % 79.6 / 74.2 90.0 / 44.4
Rebounding 49.2 / 46.4 36.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.7 / 8.1 10.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 14.7 17.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
GS
HOU
GS
ML
61% 69-44
55% 95-79
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
ATS
62% 70-43
58% 101-73
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
TTL
51% 58-55
77% 134-40
100% 86-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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