Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Warriors DAL @ GS

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

16-9  |  Road

143
FINAL
Sun, Dec 15 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

14-10  |  Home

133
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
MAVERICKS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Dallas)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

53.1%

Warriors Cover

46.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-7 points

26.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

16.6%

GS By 1-7 points

24.5%

GS By 8-14 points

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
117.91
DALLAS
117.14
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
DALLAS
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 235.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 GS @ DAL 137 - 131
Jan 22, 2026 GS @ DAL 115 - 123
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ GS 116 - 126
Feb 23, 2025 DAL @ GS 102 - 126
Feb 12, 2025 GS @ DAL 107 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +10.9%
Dallas: 75.2% vs Golden State: 64.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.5%
Dallas: 42.8% vs Golden State: 33.3%
Rebounding (L5) +8.8% more
Dallas: 48.2 vs Golden State: 43.9
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Dallas: 49.1% vs Golden State: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 117.9 143
GS Score 117.1 133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 42.8 50.0 / 51.2
Assists 24.7 / 25.1 39.0 / 36.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.8 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 49.1 47.6 / 59.8
Free Throw % 64.3 / 75.2 72.7 / 72.0
Rebounding 43.9 / 48.2 37.0 / 47.0
Steals 9.7 / 9.5 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 17.1 / 18.0 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
DAL
GS
DAL
ML
55% 95-79
62% 63-39
58% 49-35
54% 44-37
ATS
58% 101-73
67% 68-34
58% 49-35
54% 44-37
TTL
77% 134-40
59% 60-41-1
100% 84-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 35 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 6 hours, 27 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 6 hours, 39 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 6 hours, 45 minutes ago
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
si 12 hours, 58 minutes ago