GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
14-11 | Road
93
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
18-9 | Home
144
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
WARRIORS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
GS By 1-7 points
24.9%
GS By 8-14 points
14.7%
MEM By 1-7 points
25.7%
MEM By 8-14 points
16.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
116.74
GOLDEN STATE
Memphis
117.14
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Memphis
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 233.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
GS @ MEM
133 - 112
Feb 9, 2026
MEM @ GS
113 - 114
Oct 27, 2025
MEM @ GS
118 - 131
Apr 15, 2025
MEM @ GS
116 - 121
Apr 1, 2025
GS @ MEM
134 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.0% more
Memphis: 17.4
vs
Golden State: 14.8
Rebounding (L5)
+16.5% more
Memphis: 48.5
vs
Golden State: 41.6
Steals (L5)
+14.2% more
Memphis: 10.4
vs
Golden State: 9.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.4%
Memphis: 78.5%
vs
Golden State: 67.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
116.7
93
MEM Score
117.1
144
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 38.8
56.3 / 33.3
Assists
29.1 / 29.4
38.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.5
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 44.9
54.1 / 35.6
Free Throw %
78.5 / 67.1
73.3 / 70.8
Rebounding
48.5 / 41.6
60.0 / 36.0
Steals
10.4 / 9.1
11.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
17.4 / 14.8
17.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
GS
MEM
GS
ML
57%
59-44
55%
95-79
50%
41-41
58%
49-35
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
101-73
50%
41-41
58%
49-35
TTL
70%
71-31-1
77%
134-40
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
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