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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

4-21  |  Road

101
FINAL
Sat, Dec 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

14-12  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
BUCKS
0%
WIZARDS --
BUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Milwaukee)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 BucksMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

29.2%

Bucks Cover

70.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

WSH By 1-7 points

17.8%

WSH By 8-14 points

7.4%

MIL By 1-7 points

27.1%

MIL By 8-14 points

23.6%

AI Model Projected Score
106.53
WASHINGTON
112.01
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
WASHINGTON
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bucks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bucks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 218.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 MIL @ WSH 99 - 109
Dec 31, 2025 WSH @ MIL 114 - 113
Dec 1, 2025 MIL @ WSH 126 - 129
Oct 22, 2025 WSH @ MIL 120 - 133
Feb 21, 2025 MIL @ WSH 104 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.6% more
Milwaukee: 9.3 vs Washington: 7.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Milwaukee: 38.7% vs Washington: 33.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Milwaukee: 47.1% vs Washington: 45.4%
Blocks (L5) +29.4% more
Washington: 7.1 vs Milwaukee: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 106.5 101
MIL Score 112.0 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 33.9 41.7 / 42.9
Assists 24.7 / 26.5 35.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.0 / 7.1 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 45.4 44.9 / 44.4
Free Throw % 67.7 / 75.5 80.0 / 68.8
Rebounding 45.0 / 49.0 44.0 / 47.0
Steals 9.3 / 7.5 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.2 / 17.5 13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
MIL Advantage
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
MIL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
WSH
MIL
WSH
ML
64% 61-35
70% 112-49
60% 49-32
47% 39-44
ATS
68% 65-31
69% 111-49-1
60% 49-32
47% 39-44
TTL
55% 53-43
74% 119-41-1
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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