INDIANA
PACERSIND
14-15 | Road
111
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
15-12 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
PACERS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
IND By 1-7 points
24.4%
IND By 8-14 points
13.9%
GS By 1-7 points
26.1%
GS By 8-14 points
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
112.7
INDIANA
Golden State
113.57
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Indiana
INDIANA
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 9, 2025
IND @ GS
83 - 114
Nov 1, 2025
GS @ IND
109 - 114
Jan 10, 2025
GS @ IND
96 - 108
Dec 23, 2024
IND @ GS
111 - 105
Mar 22, 2024
IND @ GS
123 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+13.6% more
Golden State: 9.5
vs
Indiana: 8.4
Turnovers (L5)
+12.4% more
Golden State: 14.2
vs
Indiana: 12.7
Blocks (L5)
+17.3% more
Indiana: 6.2
vs
Golden State: 5.1
Assists (L5)
+14.0% more
Indiana: 32.0
vs
Golden State: 27.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
112.7
111
GS Score
113.6
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.4 / 40.8
31.6 / 31.4
Assists
27.5 / 32.0
29.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.1 / 6.2
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.2 / 51.6
43.3 / 48.9
Free Throw %
70.2 / 76.5
71.4 / 90.9
Rebounding
41.5 / 44.8
44.0 / 43.0
Steals
9.5 / 8.4
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 12.7
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
IND
GS
IND
ML
55%
95-79
48%
47-50
58%
49-35
54%
45-38
ATS
58%
101-73
59%
57-40
58%
49-35
54%
45-38
TTL
77%
134-40
54%
52-45
100%
84-0
100%
83-0
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