Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Warriors LAL @ GS

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

16-13  |  Road

115
FINAL
Wed, Dec 25 • 8:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

15-13  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
LAKERS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.9
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.9 points (Golden State)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

18.7%

Warriors Cover

81.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -8.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

LAL By 1-7 points

12.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

4.1%

GS By 1-7 points

24.4%

GS By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
101.15
LOS ANGELES
110.03
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
LOS ANGELES
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 211.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 9, 2026 LAL @ GS 119 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 LAL @ GS 129 - 101
Feb 7, 2026 GS @ LAL 99 - 105
Oct 21, 2025 GS @ LAL 119 - 109
Oct 12, 2025 GS @ LAL 116 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +13.8% more
Golden State: 28.0 vs Los Angeles: 24.6
Turnovers (L5) +24.0% more
Los Angeles: 17.3 vs Golden State: 13.2
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
Los Angeles: 76.0% vs Golden State: 70.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Los Angeles: 48.0% vs Golden State: 43.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 101.2 115
GS Score 110.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 35.9 40.0 / 35.7
Assists 28.0 / 24.6 26.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.7 / 5.7 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 48.0 46.1 / 45.1
Free Throw % 70.6 / 76.0 76.5 / 100.0
Rebounding 42.3 / 44.3 44.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.7 / 8.9 2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 17.3 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
LAL
GS
LAL
ML
55% 95-79
61% 68-43
58% 49-35
54% 49-42
ATS
58% 101-73
61% 67-43-1
58% 49-35
54% 49-42
TTL
77% 134-40
61% 66-43-2
100% 84-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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