Home / NBA Projections NBA / Suns @ Warriors PHX @ GS

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

15-15  |  Road

105
FINAL
Sat, Dec 28 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

15-15  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
SUNS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Golden State)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

43.5%

Warriors Cover

56.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

PHX By 1-7 points

23.5%

PHX By 8-14 points

12.7%

GS By 1-7 points

26.6%

GS By 8-14 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
102.3
PHOENIX
103.94
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
PHOENIX
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 206.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 17, 2026 GS @ PHX 96 - 111
Feb 5, 2026 GS @ PHX 101 - 97
Dec 20, 2025 PHX @ GS 116 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 GS @ PHX 98 - 99
Nov 4, 2025 PHX @ GS 107 - 118
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Phoenix: 37.3% vs Golden State: 30.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Phoenix: 77.3% vs Golden State: 73.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Phoenix: 44.5% vs Golden State: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 102.3 105
GS Score 103.9 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 37.3 26.7 / 25.7
Assists 26.2 / 26.4 26.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.9 7.0 / 12.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 44.5 41.8 / 42.4
Free Throw % 73.4 / 77.3 78.9 / 81.8
Rebounding 44.3 / 41.0 49.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.0 / 9.6 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 14.2 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
PHX
GS
PHX
ML
55% 95-79
57% 60-45
58% 49-35
51% 45-43
ATS
58% 101-73
58% 59-43-3
58% 49-35
51% 45-43
TTL
77% 134-40
59% 61-42-2
100% 84-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 8 hours, 12 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 8 hours, 19 minutes ago
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
si 14 hours, 32 minutes ago
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
headtopics 20 hours, 35 minutes ago
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
chicago_suntimes 21 hours, 2 minutes ago