Home / NBA Projections NBA / Spurs @ Timberwolves SA @ MIN

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

16-15  |  Road

110
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 9:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

16-14  |  Home

112
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
SPURS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Minnesota)
SpursSA (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spurs Cover

34.0%

Timberwolves Cover

66.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

SA By 1-7 points

19.9%

SA By 8-14 points

9.1%

MIN By 1-7 points

27.4%

MIN By 8-14 points

21.8%

AI Model Projected Score
103.3
SAN ANTONIO
107.43
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
SAN ANTONIO
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 210.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 15, 2026 SA @ MIN 139 - 109
May 12, 2026 MIN @ SA 97 - 126
May 10, 2026 SA @ MIN 109 - 114
May 8, 2026 SA @ MIN 115 - 108
May 6, 2026 MIN @ SA 95 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.7% more
Minnesota: 8.8 vs San Antonio: 7.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Minnesota: 41.7% vs San Antonio: 38.6%
Blocks (L5) +44.2% more
San Antonio: 8.5 vs Minnesota: 4.8
Assists (L5) +10.8% more
San Antonio: 29.0 vs Minnesota: 25.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SA Score 103.3 110
MIN Score 107.4 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.7 / 38.6 25.0 / 28.2
Assists 25.8 / 29.0 23.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.8 / 8.5 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 45.4 43.0 / 43.7
Free Throw % 70.5 / 80.5 78.9 / 82.1
Rebounding 43.0 / 44.3 56.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.8 / 7.2 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 15.4 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SA
MIN
SA
ML
54% 63-53
60% 111-73
54% 50-43
58% 61-44
ATS
58% 67-49
58% 107-76-1
54% 50-43
58% 61-44
TTL
63% 72-43-1
74% 134-47-3
100% 93-0
100% 105-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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