SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
17-16 | Road
113
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
19-13 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
SPURS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
SA By 1-7 points
18.9%
SA By 8-14 points
8.3%
DEN By 1-7 points
27.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
22.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
116.15
SAN ANTONIO
Denver
120.95
DENVER
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
128 - 118
Apr 4, 2026
SA @ DEN
134 - 136
Mar 12, 2026
DEN @ SA
136 - 131
Nov 28, 2025
SA @ DEN
139 - 136
Apr 2, 2025
SA @ DEN
113 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+20.6% more
Denver: 37.1
vs
San Antonio: 30.8
Steals (L5)
+14.4% more
Denver: 9.0
vs
San Antonio: 7.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Denver: 38.6%
vs
San Antonio: 30.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
Denver: 53.8%
vs
San Antonio: 46.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
116.2
113
DEN Score
121.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 30.9
38.5 / 36.1
Assists
37.1 / 30.8
33.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.3 / 7.0
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
53.8 / 46.2
43.3 / 46.5
Free Throw %
87.6 / 83.9
68.8 / 61.5
Rebounding
44.6 / 48.1
46.0 / 56.0
Steals
9.0 / 7.9
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 12.0
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
SA
DEN
SA
ML
54%
57-48
60%
111-73
55%
47-39
58%
61-44
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
107-76-1
55%
47-39
58%
61-44
TTL
54%
56-48-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
86-0
100%
105-0
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