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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

23-12  |  Road

113
FINAL
Sat, Jan 4 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

17-16  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Golden State)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

45.3%

Warriors Cover

54.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

MEM By 1-7 points

24.1%

MEM By 8-14 points

13.4%

GS By 1-7 points

26.3%

GS By 8-14 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
118.22
MEMPHIS
119.39
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
MEMPHIS
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 GS @ MEM 133 - 112
Feb 9, 2026 MEM @ GS 113 - 114
Oct 27, 2025 MEM @ GS 118 - 131
Apr 15, 2025 MEM @ GS 116 - 121
Apr 1, 2025 GS @ MEM 134 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.2% more
Golden State: 7.0 vs Memphis: 5.1
Turnovers (L5) +26.7% more
Memphis: 17.8 vs Golden State: 13.1
Steals (L5) +15.6% more
Memphis: 7.8 vs Golden State: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5) +3.6%
Memphis: 78.6% vs Golden State: 75.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 118.2 113
GS Score 119.4 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 39.2 53.5 / 33.3
Assists 29.7 / 30.2 32.0 / 29.0
Blocks 7.0 / 5.1 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 45.5 52.4 / 52.3
Free Throw % 75.0 / 78.6 62.5 / 75.0
Rebounding 46.9 / 50.9 29.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.8 13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 17.8 18.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
MEM
GS
MEM
ML
55% 95-79
57% 59-44
58% 49-35
50% 41-41
ATS
58% 101-73
63% 65-38
58% 49-35
50% 41-41
TTL
77% 134-40
70% 71-31-1
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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