HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
23-12 | Road
135
WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
6-27 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
WIZARDS
100%
ROCKETS
--
WIZARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.2 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -10.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
22.8%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.3%
WSH By 1-7 points
10.4%
WSH By 8-14 points
3.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
113.72
HOUSTON
Washington
103.55
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Houston
HOUSTON
Washington
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 217.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 2, 2026
HOU @ WSH
123 - 118
Nov 12, 2025
WSH @ HOU
112 - 135
Jan 7, 2025
HOU @ WSH
135 - 112
Nov 11, 2024
WSH @ HOU
92 - 107
Mar 19, 2024
HOU @ WSH
137 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+61.6% more
Washington: 27.7
vs
Houston: 17.2
Turnovers (L5)
+49.2% more
Washington: 17.0
vs
Houston: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Washington: 78.8%
vs
Houston: 76.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Washington: 46.7%
vs
Houston: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
113.7
135
WSH Score
103.6
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 32.4
37.5 / 39.5
Assists
27.7 / 17.2
21.0 / 31.0
Blocks
3.7 / 3.9
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 44.1
46.1 / 51.5
Free Throw %
78.8 / 76.0
75.0 / 87.0
Rebounding
45.9 / 44.9
43.0 / 49.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.8
6.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
17.0 / 11.4
18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
HOU
WSH
HOU
ML
70%
112-49
61%
69-44
47%
39-44
59%
51-35
ATS
69%
111-49-1
62%
70-43
47%
39-44
59%
51-35
TTL
74%
119-41-1
51%
58-55
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
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