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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

18-17  |  Road

104
FINAL
Tue, Jan 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

7-29  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

50.8%

Pelicans Cover

49.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

25.5%

MIN By 8-14 points

15.6%

NO By 1-7 points

25.1%

NO By 8-14 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
109.69
MINNESOTA
109.48
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
MINNESOTA
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 NO @ MIN 126 - 132
Feb 6, 2026 NO @ MIN 119 - 115
Dec 4, 2025 MIN @ NO 125 - 116
Dec 2, 2025 MIN @ NO 149 - 142
Mar 21, 2025 NO @ MIN 93 - 134
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.5% more
Minnesota: 16.1 vs New Orleans: 12.2
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
Minnesota: 45.3 vs New Orleans: 41.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Minnesota: 41.6% vs New Orleans: 37.1%
Steals (L5) +62.2% more
New Orleans: 8.8 vs Minnesota: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 109.7 104
NO Score 109.5 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 41.6 29.3 / 34.1
Assists 29.0 / 23.0 23.0 / 26.0
Blocks 6.8 / 4.5 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 45.5 37.2 / 42.7
Free Throw % 84.5 / 75.4 62.5 / 68.4
Rebounding 41.3 / 45.3 46.0 / 53.0
Steals 8.8 / 5.4 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 16.1 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MIN
NO
MIN
ML
62% 98-61
54% 63-53
58% 48-35
54% 50-43
ATS
68% 107-51-1
58% 67-49
58% 48-35
54% 50-43
TTL
75% 119-40
63% 72-43-1
100% 83-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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