GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
18-18 | Road
107
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
19-18 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
PISTONS
100%
WARRIORS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
27.1%
GS By 8-14 points
19.3%
DET By 1-7 points
22.4%
DET By 8-14 points
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
111.69
GOLDEN STATE
Detroit
109.21
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Detroit
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
GS @ DET
101 - 115
Jan 30, 2026
DET @ GS
131 - 124
Mar 8, 2025
DET @ GS
110 - 115
Jan 9, 2025
GS @ DET
107 - 104
Oct 13, 2024
DET @ GS
93 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.1% more
Detroit: 15.1
vs
Golden State: 10.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Detroit: 48.4%
vs
Golden State: 45.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
111.7
107
DET Score
109.2
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 35.9
35.9 / 32.6
Assists
26.3 / 27.8
25.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.5
7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 45.2
45.3 / 46.1
Free Throw %
74.2 / 74.2
75.0 / 62.5
Rebounding
44.6 / 43.3
40.0 / 49.0
Steals
9.7 / 9.1
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 10.5
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
GS
DET
GS
ML
55%
64-53
55%
95-79
49%
47-49
58%
49-35
ATS
53%
60-54-3
58%
101-73
49%
47-49
58%
49-35
TTL
60%
70-46-1
77%
134-40
100%
96-0
100%
84-0
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