Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Pacers GS @ IND

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

19-18  |  Road

96
FINAL
Fri, Jan 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

20-18  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
WARRIORS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Indiana)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

41.2%

Pacers Cover

58.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

GS By 1-7 points

22.7%

GS By 8-14 points

11.8%

IND By 1-7 points

27.0%

IND By 8-14 points

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
112.13
GOLDEN STATE
114.36
INDIANA
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 226.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 9, 2025 IND @ GS 83 - 114
Nov 1, 2025 GS @ IND 109 - 114
Jan 10, 2025 GS @ IND 96 - 108
Dec 23, 2024 IND @ GS 111 - 105
Mar 22, 2024 IND @ GS 123 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Indiana: 50.3% vs Golden State: 45.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
Indiana: 74.5% vs Golden State: 70.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Indiana: 36.9% vs Golden State: 34.8%
Blocks (L5) +42.5% more
Golden State: 6.0 vs Indiana: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 112.1 96
IND Score 114.4 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 34.8 33.3 / 26.3
Assists 31.3 / 29.2 27.0 / 25.0
Blocks 3.4 / 6.0 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.3 / 45.5 52.4 / 41.8
Free Throw % 74.5 / 70.3 68.4 / 76.9
Rebounding 43.3 / 45.2 48.0 / 42.0
Steals 8.6 / 9.1 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 12.0 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
GS
IND
GS
ML
48% 47-50
55% 95-79
54% 45-38
58% 49-35
ATS
59% 57-40
58% 101-73
54% 45-38
58% 49-35
TTL
54% 52-45
77% 134-40
100% 83-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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