Home / NBA Projections NBA / Timberwolves @ Wizards MIN @ WSH

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

20-18  |  Road

120
FINAL
Mon, Jan 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

6-31  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.2 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

73.2%

Wizards Cover

26.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

26.7%

MIN By 8-14 points

24.5%

WSH By 1-7 points

16.6%

WSH By 8-14 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
109.68
MINNESOTA
103.49
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
MINNESOTA
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MIN @ WSH 141 - 115
Nov 19, 2025 WSH @ MIN 109 - 120
Feb 1, 2025 WSH @ MIN 105 - 103
Jan 13, 2025 MIN @ WSH 120 - 106
Apr 9, 2024 WSH @ MIN 121 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +20.8% more
Minnesota: 7.3 vs Washington: 5.8
Assists (L5) +13.8% more
Minnesota: 27.7 vs Washington: 23.9
Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Minnesota: 47.6% vs Washington: 40.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
Minnesota: 38.7% vs Washington: 31.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 109.7 120
WSH Score 103.5 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 38.7 42.5 / 37.8
Assists 23.9 / 27.7 27.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.9 / 5.1 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 40.5 / 47.6 44.0 / 49.4
Free Throw % 78.5 / 74.2 60.0 / 77.4
Rebounding 43.9 / 46.1 34.0 / 53.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.3 13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 17.4 / 15.9 11.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIN
WSH
MIN
ML
70% 112-49
54% 63-53
47% 39-44
54% 50-43
ATS
69% 111-49-1
58% 67-49
47% 39-44
54% 50-43
TTL
74% 119-41-1
63% 72-43-1
100% 83-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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