Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Raptors GS @ TOR

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

19-19  |  Road

101
FINAL
Mon, Jan 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

8-31  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
WARRIORS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

63.7%

Raptors Cover

36.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

27.3%

GS By 8-14 points

20.9%

TOR By 1-7 points

20.9%

TOR By 8-14 points

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
108.36
GOLDEN STATE
104.85
TORONTO
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 TOR @ GS 145 - 127
Dec 28, 2025 GS @ TOR 127 - 141
Mar 20, 2025 TOR @ GS 114 - 117
Jan 13, 2025 GS @ TOR 101 - 104
Mar 1, 2024 GS @ TOR 120 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.1% more
Golden State: 4.7 vs Toronto: 3.4
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Golden State: 44.1 vs Toronto: 39.5
Free Throw % (L5) +6.5%
Golden State: 72.5% vs Toronto: 66.0%
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
Toronto: 13.9 vs Golden State: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 108.4 101
TOR Score 104.9 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 32.0 41.4 / 34.8
Assists 28.6 / 27.8 28.0 / 23.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.7 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 44.3 47.7 / 39.8
Free Throw % 66.0 / 72.5 66.7 / 68.2
Rebounding 39.5 / 44.1 44.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.9 / 9.7 3.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 12.7 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
GS
TOR
GS
ML
55% 57-47
55% 95-79
55% 48-39
58% 49-35
ATS
61% 62-40-2
58% 101-73
55% 48-39
58% 49-35
TTL
60% 62-42
77% 134-40
100% 87-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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