MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
25-15 | Road
129
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
19-19 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
SPURS
100%
GRIZZLIES
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
MEM By 1-7 points
26.9%
MEM By 8-14 points
18.6%
SA By 1-7 points
23.0%
SA By 8-14 points
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
116.28
MEMPHIS
San Antonio
114.24
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Memphis
MEMPHIS
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Grizzlies (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
SA @ MEM
123 - 98
Jan 6, 2026
SA @ MEM
105 - 106
Dec 2, 2025
MEM @ SA
119 - 126
Nov 18, 2025
MEM @ SA
101 - 111
Mar 1, 2025
SA @ MEM
130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.2% more
Memphis: 17.2
vs
San Antonio: 12.0
Steals (L5)
+21.5% more
Memphis: 12.6
vs
San Antonio: 9.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Memphis: 38.7%
vs
San Antonio: 34.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Memphis: 49.1%
vs
San Antonio: 45.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
116.3
129
SA Score
114.2
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 38.7
37.2 / 42.1
Assists
28.8 / 21.8
22.0 / 28.0
Blocks
6.4 / 4.2
11.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 49.1
44.9 / 49.5
Free Throw %
79.7 / 73.0
70.4 / 64.7
Rebounding
46.9 / 41.9
44.0 / 52.0
Steals
9.9 / 12.6
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 17.2
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
MEM
SA
MEM
ML
60%
111-73
57%
59-44
58%
61-44
50%
41-41
ATS
58%
107-76-1
63%
65-38
58%
61-44
50%
41-41
TTL
74%
134-47-3
70%
71-31-1
100%
105-0
100%
82-0
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