GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
19-20 | Road
116
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
21-18 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
WARRIORS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
GS By 1-7 points
23.4%
GS By 8-14 points
12.6%
MIN By 1-7 points
26.7%
MIN By 8-14 points
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
105.91
GOLDEN STATE
Minnesota
107.63
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Minnesota
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 213.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
MIN @ GS
127 - 117
Jan 26, 2026
GS @ MIN
83 - 108
Jan 25, 2026
GS @ MIN
111 - 85
Dec 12, 2025
MIN @ GS
127 - 120
May 14, 2025
GS @ MIN
110 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+25.6% more
Minnesota: 16.9
vs
Golden State: 13.5
Blocks (L5)
+21.2% more
Minnesota: 5.4
vs
Golden State: 4.4
Rebounding (L5)
+8.1% more
Minnesota: 48.4
vs
Golden State: 44.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
Minnesota: 38.4%
vs
Golden State: 32.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
105.9
116
MIN Score
107.6
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 32.9
45.9 / 50.0
Assists
25.1 / 26.2
21.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.4 / 4.4
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 42.8
44.2 / 48.8
Free Throw %
75.3 / 71.1
75.9 / 85.7
Rebounding
48.4 / 44.8
41.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.5 / 10.1
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.9 / 13.5
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
MIN
Advantage
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
GS
MIN
GS
ML
54%
63-53
55%
95-79
54%
50-43
58%
49-35
ATS
58%
67-49
58%
101-73
54%
50-43
58%
49-35
TTL
63%
72-43-1
77%
134-40
100%
93-0
100%
84-0
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