SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
19-21 | Road
107
MIAMI
HEATMIA
20-20 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
HEAT
100%
SPURS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
26.0%
SA By 8-14 points
16.4%
MIA By 1-7 points
24.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
14.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
108.47
SAN ANTONIO
Miami
107.79
MIAMI
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Miami
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 216.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
SA @ MIA
136 - 111
Oct 30, 2025
MIA @ SA
101 - 107
Oct 8, 2025
SA @ MIA
112 - 107
Feb 1, 2025
MIA @ SA
105 - 103
Jan 19, 2025
SA @ MIA
107 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+58.1% more
San Antonio: 7.9
vs
Miami: 3.3
Steals (L5)
+20.5% more
San Antonio: 6.8
vs
Miami: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.0%
Miami: 88.6%
vs
San Antonio: 78.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
108.5
107
MIA Score
107.8
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 35.4
54.5 / 37.5
Assists
27.3 / 27.4
35.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.3 / 7.9
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 46.2
52.6 / 45.1
Free Throw %
88.6 / 78.6
100.0 / 62.5
Rebounding
42.5 / 44.0
49.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.4 / 6.8
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 13.5
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SA
MIA
SA
ML
48%
46-50
60%
111-73
59%
48-34
58%
61-44
ATS
51%
49-47
58%
107-76-1
59%
48-34
58%
61-44
TTL
59%
57-39
74%
134-47-3
100%
82-0
100%
105-0
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