SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
19-22 | Road
140
INDIANA
PACERSIND
24-19 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
PACERS
0%
SPURS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.4
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.4 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -8.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
SA By 1-7 points
13.0%
SA By 8-14 points
4.5%
IND By 1-7 points
24.9%
IND By 8-14 points
26.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
110.61
SAN ANTONIO
Indiana
119.04
INDIANA
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Indiana
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
IND @ SA
119 - 134
Jan 2, 2026
SA @ IND
123 - 113
Oct 13, 2025
SA @ IND
124 - 108
Jan 25, 2025
IND @ SA
136 - 98
Jan 23, 2025
SA @ IND
140 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+43.5% more
Indiana: 8.5
vs
San Antonio: 5.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Indiana: 49.8%
vs
San Antonio: 45.9%
Blocks (L5)
+24.9% more
San Antonio: 7.0
vs
Indiana: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.1%
San Antonio: 73.2%
vs
Indiana: 71.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
110.6
140
IND Score
119.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 36.1
30.2 / 50.0
Assists
29.5 / 27.6
31.0 / 43.0
Blocks
5.2 / 7.0
2.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 45.9
45.4 / 60.4
Free Throw %
71.2 / 73.2
75.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
44.8 / 44.0
31.0 / 57.0
Steals
8.5 / 5.9
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 14.0
11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
SA
IND
SA
ML
48%
47-50
60%
111-73
54%
45-38
58%
61-44
ATS
59%
57-40
58%
107-76-1
54%
45-38
58%
61-44
TTL
54%
52-45
74%
134-47-3
100%
83-0
100%
105-0
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